Abstract
A systems analysis of earthquake hazards in urban areas is carried out in relation to an issue of warning, in which the viewpoint from risk assessment is employed. Mass panic and systems panic are distinguished, and the latter is shown to be much more crucial than the former.
The diffusion of issued information is simulated for the Izu Oshima earthquake, 1978. It is concluded that dual information channels at mass media level and administrative level are dangerous (Chap. 2). In urban areas, separation of family and without in telephone lines are major sources of systems panic. The responses of individuals with respect to the timing of warnings are analyzed and simulated. It is concluded that several hours are required from the detection of abnormal signs to finish emergency actions (Chap. 2).
The "go home" behavior is the prevailing action for people in the downtown area of a large city. Mass evacuations from Sakae area in Nagoya City after an issue of warning are simulated. It is concluded that simultaneous rush to the metro from various areas should be avoided (Chap. 3).
A systems analysis of hazards is carried out from both demand and supply sides. Supply systems (water, electricity, city gas, etc.) and emergency service systems (fire fighting, mass evacuation, etc.) are evaluated based on fault net analysis. It is concluded that regional evacuation will not be effectual for any earthquake (Chap. 4).
