EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH IN CHINA

STATUS AND PROSPECTS

Abstract

The initial understandings about time and space distribution of major earthquakes and earthquake precursors, and prediction achieved for the past 18 years in China are summarized. Two major aspects of the fundamental understandings are: 1) Before most of the strong shocks, particularly those with magnitude over 7 occurring within an area under the detectability of a network, varieties of anomalous phenomena are observed. 2) Because of the complicated continental crustal structures, the temporal and spatial distributions of the continental seismicity in China are rather complex, but there are some regularities, and some unique dynamic patterns such as block-like, stripe-like, and diversified distributions of earthquakes.
The problems of earthquake prediction are identified. They are mainly caused by 1) non-uniqueness of the relation between anomalous variations and earthquake precursors, 2) complexity of the relation between local and regional anomalies, and 3) diversity of possible earthquake precursors. And how to improve the level of earthquake prediction, topics to be further studied, and the key work to be carried out are also discussed. Efforts should be directed to 1) systematic evaluation and in-depth research of various prediction methods, 2) setting up the optimum monitoring network and appropriate data processing systems, 3) profound fundamental research, and 4) comprehensive research on earthquake precursors.