RECENT CRUSTAL RUPTURE FIELD IN CHINA AND THE PROBLEM OF STRONG-EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Abstract

A fundamental problem of carrying out earthquake prediction lies in the correct identification of a potential active area of strong earthquake activity. To attain this goal, it is necessary to study the state of a recent crustal rupture field related to strong earthquake activity. Large amounts of data have been acquired on historical earthquakes, active faults, surface faults associated with earthquakes, isoseismal lines, and source mechanisms in China. All these data outline objectively the principal pattern of recent crustal ruptures related to strong earthquake activity in China. It shows that this kind of crustal rupturing is characterized by rupturing in zones and regions. Four such major zones could be outlined. They are the Central Asian zone, the North-South zone, the North China zone, and the Southeastern Coast zone. Studies on the distribution, characteristics of activity, and mechanisms of the rupture zones, and recurrence interval of strong earthquakes in these zones have become of considerable significance for strong earthquake prediction.