Interpretation of Probability in Evolutionary Theory

-Possibility of Bayesian Interpretation-

Abstract

    Probability concepts are an integral part of modern evolutionary theory. This raises a philosophical question. Which interpretation of probability is appropriate for evolutionary theory? Alex Rosenberg argues from the Laplacian worldview that the probabilities used in evolutionary theory shouldn't be interpreted realistically because they only reflect our ignorance of details. This paper gives a critical appraisal of his arguments. I show that the probabilities reflect not merely our ignorance but some aspects of reality. I also show that in evolutionary theory we may update the probabilities rationally depending on what we know. Then I suggest an alternative interpretation, which is the Bayesian interpretation.