Estimation of the Number of COVID-19 Infections in an Evacuation Center

Calculation Using a Multi-Agent Simulation

Abstract

The number of infected individuals under various conditions was estimated using a multi-agent simulation that focused on people’s movement, in order to evaluate COVID-19 countermeasures in evacuation centers during natural disasters. The results showed that the number of infections increased significantly with longer movement times. Conversely, the number of infected individuals was reduced by half when either the initial number of infected persons was halved or when fewer people went to collect meals at the same time. In contrast, reducing the area of the evacuation center had little effect on the number of infections.