Abstract
These measures that are reduction of global warming gasses, saving energy and fuel diversification need a method of considering cost effectiveness in the long-term. Especially, China, India and ASEAN countries are predicted to rapidly increase demand in the transport sector. The authors focused on passenger car sectors in these three regions and developed an energy and CO2 emission analysis model that is based on the multinomial logit model that projects probability of consumer’s choices. The authors estimated CO2 reduction potential by assuming not only future automotive technology evolutions but integrated approaches such as eco-driving and improved traffic flows by the year 2050. As results, total CO2 emission in three regions with technology advanced and integrated approach case is estimated to be decreased by 45% compared with a business as usual case defined in this paper.
