Air Quality Estimation in 2050

— JSAE 2050 Challenge and Air Quality Estimation in 2050 —

Abstract

The domestic air pollutant emission for 2050 was estimated based on an 80% reduction of greenhouse gases by 2050. With the emission data and future estimation scenarios in mainland China, PM_2.5 and O₃ concentration were estimated by an air quality model: CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System). As a result, it was thought that the current atmospheric environmental quality standard would be achieved for PM_2.5, and high-concentration photochemical O₃ in summer would not occur. However, as the amount of decrease in O₃ concentration in spring was small, it was considered that it would be difficult to achieve an air quality standard of 60 ppb.