Modeling of Alternate Bearing in Satsuma Mandarin

Linear Dynamic Model Based on Ensemble Data Set for Harvested Fruits Number

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic model to describe alternate bearing in the Satsuma mandarin Otsu Yongo. We employed two types of model: dynamic model and dynamic model incorporated with inorganic substances in leaves (N, P, K, Ca, Mg). In order to remove the possibility of over-fitting, all models were checked by cross validation. No methodology to predict production by chemical contents in trees is still settled in fruit tree science, though it has been searched. However, The dynamic model and dynamic models incorporated with inorganic substances showed quite high accuracy in the cross validation. The results imply the existence of underlying dynamics behind the alternate bearing of citrus fruit.