Abstract
Global environmental issues are intimately related with the energy production and use. Over 90% of the world carbon dioxide emissions is due to the energy use of fossil fuels. In the present paper, proved reserves (R), production (P) of primary energy resources and carbon dioxide emissions are firstly surveyed, since energy production and use are presently the largest single factor contributing to global warming. Special attention has been paid to oil resources and its price, which are very sensitive to the change in economical and political factors. Correlation of reserve production ratio (R/P) with oil price (M) has been investigated based on a multiequilibrium model proposed. It has been found that a simple relation holds between R/P and M as far as the state stays on one equilibrium: (R/P)=(R/P)0+a/M2, where (R/P)0 and a are constants determined by the state. When a transition occurs to the other state due to a huge shock such as oil crisis, values of (R/P)0 and a change; Transition occurred two times at 1973 and 1979, hitherto. Future trend of R/P vs. M could be predicted from this relation.
