THE ACCURACY VERIFICATION OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS AT THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY STATIONS BY XGBOOST

Abstract

The use of photovoltaic power (PV) generation is gaining momentum toward achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 in Japan. On the other hand, PV generation is easily affected by weather conditions, and accurate forecasting of solar irradiance, which is strongly correlated with the amount of electricity generated, is required. Forecast values such as MSM are used to predict solar irradiance, but their accuracy varies over time and space, so power generation planning based on these values can avoid economic risks for power producers due to imbalances.

In this paper, we analyzed the accuracy of MSM solar irradiance data since the model was improved in February 2017 by comparing it with national meteorological observatory solar irradiance data. In addition, we forecast solar irradiance for weather bureaus from MSM irradiance data and mention the challenges.