Analysis of the effectiveness of emergency declarations by using time series analysis of people flow data

Abstract

In response to the spread of COVID-19 from 2020 to 2022, efforts have been made worldwide to prevent the spread of the disease. A state of emergency has been declared four times in Osaka City to prevent such an epidemic. In this study, a time-series analysis was conducted using data on the flow of people in Osaka City to analyze the effects of emergency declarations. The effectiveness of the emergency declaration was verified by comparing predicted and observed changes in outings before and after each declaration. Furthermore, by mapping the flow of people in each area, the spatial reality of the change in the flow of people from dense to dispersed in the central area of Osaka City could be observed. The results of these analyses quantitatively confirmed that people initially tended to refrain from moving in response to the declaration but that the restraining effect of the declaration decreased as the declaration was repeatedly issued.