Basic Analysis on Future Projections of Pharmaceutical Demand During Disasters -Examination using KDB data for Hakui, Ishikawa-

Abstract

If a large-scale disaster occurs and there is a shortage of pharmaceuticals, the inability to pre- scribe necessary medications to patients with chronic diseases increases the likelihood of their con- dition worsening. This study aims to estimate the future regional demand for pharmaceuticals in preparation for a sudden increase in demand due to a large-scale earthquake disaster. Focusing on Hakui City in Ishikawa Prefecture, we first examined the pharmaceutical prescription trends over the past ten years and then projected future prescription trends. This study specifically targets anti- hypertensive drugs, antiepileptic drugs, and antidiabetic drugs, which are critically necessary for patients with chronic diseases. Using the SARIMA model, which is employed for time series data estimation, we projected the number of prescriptions under normal circumstances for the next five years. The analysis results showed that the number of prescriptions for antihypertensive drugs and antiepileptic drugs decreased by approximately 34.2% and 42.1% respectively over the five years from the start of the estimation period, while the number of prescriptions for antidiabetic drugs de- creased by only about 4.2%.