Abstract
Reliability-based design of a pavement requires an exact estimation of failure probability of the pavement. In this paper, an estimation method of reliability of asphalt pavement based on TA method is proposed. The failure probability of pavement is estimated by the second moment formulation and Monte Carlo simulation accounting for the variations of design parameters, such as traffic volume, subgrade and material properties, and accuracy of TA method itself. The reliabilities of a number of asphlat pavements are estimated by the proposed method. The sensitibity analysis is performed to exploit the effect of the variations of the design parameters on the reliability of asphalt pavements.
