Abstract
In this paper, a time-dependent deterioration forecasting model is presented, whereby the deterioration process is described by the transition probabilities which are conditional upon the duration for usage. The model is formulated by the multi-staged Weibull hazard model defined by the convolution of multiple Weibull hazard functions. The model can be estimated based upon the inspection data which are obtained at the discrete points in time. The applicability of the model and the estimation methodology presented in this paper is investigated against the empirical data set of the highway utilities in the real world.
