Abstract
A stochastic analysis is presented of the probability of overtopping of a dam. The discussion is based on the case of a dam for a small water storage reservoir which has recently been constructed in the Saar district in the FRG. The problem is first solved by means of a simulation method. However, it is possible to describe the result of the simulation method by means of a much simpler model which is based on a solution of the failure integral of Freudenthal for uncorrelated resistances and loads. It is shown that the actual safety of this dam against overtopping is extremely sensitive to both the operation rule for the reservoir, and the freeboard allowance. Some general conclusions are derived from this study for assisting in the ongoing discussion of dam safety.
