Abstract
This study aims at the stochastic evaluation of the water utility function of reservoir with discrete Markovian correlated inflows. Matrix algebraic analysis has been carried out with two-step transition model proposed by the authors. Some statistics have been clarified for the quantitative and sequential characters of the reservoir, for example, the passage time to the first emptiness. Taking account of various characteristics of emptiness, the analytical representation of criteria for effectiveness of water utility in the reservoir is developed, and stochastic consideration are presented. Numerical calculation is carried out for the comparison with the operation of non-prediction, ideal stochastic DP, and linear regression model with inflow information for the case of correlated Binomial inputs. It is found that linear regression model is useful according to the probabilistic judgement of vulnerability of water-shortage.
