Abstract
In order to evaluate the economic impacts of sets of interdependent major interregional infrastructure investments, such as transportation, as welll as to allow calibration to data at the regional level, a framework for a probabilistic Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model is introduced. Firstly, the foundations of a probabilistic approach to spatial planning using aggregate data are described. Then, a short-run probabilistic spatial supply model for analysis of multi-sectoral regional production and interregional trade is presented, followed by a sketch of a companion model of spatial household demand. Finally, the short-run spatial supply and demand models are embedded in a long-run sequential dynamic framework, potentially allowing the timing, location and scope of sets of large infrastructure inventments to be better coordinated.
