Abstract
An idea of probabilistic scenario earthquakes (PSE) is proposed and its engineering applications are described. PSE is developed by establishing a link between probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and scenario earthquakes, and makes it possible to objectively determine the scenario earthquakes corresponding to the specific risk level. The procedure of determining PSE and several case studies of PSE, which include the examples for major cities in Japan and the seismic hazard maps in terms of PSE, are shown in this study. In particular, the case study for Kobe demonstrates that the PSE can be applied to the evaluation of the “low frequency-high impact seismic event” such as Great Hanshin earthquake of 1995.
