Abstract
Aiming at an evaluation of intertemporal and interspatial transitions of the salinization problem, five different irrigation strategies at the Illi river basin in Kazakhstan are planned. Net future benefit produced by each alternative is estimated and is compared to the others by computer simulation. The simulation is composed of a grossagricultural-profit-estimation module, a salinity-damage-estimation module, and a net-future-benefit-estimation module. As a conclusion, it is shown that the down stream transition of salinization is not desirable. Demonstrating intertemporal transition, the model is also designed to show quantitative trends of the net present value as a function of the social time preference and the evaluation period.
