Abstract
This study aims to build a travel frequency-forecasting model based on the community bus services, these services are specially considered as easy to access by elderly passengers. The travel frequency-forecasting model is used to forecast each bus passenger's travel frequency per day. This forecasting model is composed of two models, which are as follows: one is the model estimates the individual choice ratio of travel frequency by present transport mode, and the second model forecasts the growth of travel frequency by using the community bus services, specially considered for elderly passengers. It is aimed that this forecasting model will enable the forecasting of unmet demand behind the present bus services when the new types of bus services are introduced.
