Abstract
A hazard-based duration model of household vehicle transactions behavior is developed in this study to examine the effects of Japanese periodic inspection program, and an empirical analysis is carried out using the data set obtained by a panel survey conducted in Kyoto City. The results of model estimation suggest a higher probability of replacing or disposing of a vehicle whose inspection is scheduled within the next 6 months. Results of a simulation-based scenario analysis indicate that raising in the inspection cost accelerates the replacement of vehicles households own without affecting the number of vehicles they own, and that the extension of the inspection period decelerates the scrappage of vehicles and increases the number of vehicles households own.
