Abstract
In the urban area, development of railway capacity and dispersion of demand are thought to relieve congestion in peak time. In order to evaluate the effects of these measures, a network assignment model based on a time-space network is developed, called the Commuter Demand Concentration Model. Utilizing OD tables, railway capacity data, and information of working time system as input, this model gives congestion levels at each time and at each zone. Then, this model is applied to Tokyo's railway network, and it turned out that it can estimate commuter demand over time with reasonable accuracy. Finally, we can make a forecast for Tokyo's railway demand in the future, considering possible changes in the working system and railway capacity.
