Abstract
A two-step model has been proposed for evaluation of post-earthquake serviceability of utility lifelines in terms of an estimate of seismic intensity at the site concerned. From the experience of 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu earthquake, Japan, a GIS database containing high-density distribution of seismic intensity, utility lifeline disruption and outage time was compiled. Then, a two-step model was developed on this basis; the first model being a logit model for probabilistic assessment of occurrence of lifeline disruption, and the second model being a statistical prediction model for the evaluation of outage time. Combining these two models, one can conveniently perform both pre- and post-event evaluations of serviceability of electric power, water, and city gas supply systems, providing rapid estimates solely on the basis of seismic intensity information.
