Abstract
Travel demand of a new bus route opened in 2002 was forecasted in 2001 using the Behavioral Intention Method. In this paper, the predictive ability of the method was tested using actual travel demand and panel data from a survey implemented before and after the opening of the bus route. The tests indicated that behavioral-intention consistency used for the prediction was approximately compatible with the actual behavior-intention consistency. It was also indicated that there was a discrepancy between actual travel demand and predicted travel demand, but the discrepancy diminished by adjusting the numerical formulation used in the prediction The behavior-intention consistency was then analyzed using regression analysis for the purpose of future travel demand forecasting using the Behavioral Intention Method.
