A FRAGILITY INFORMATION-CONTAINED METHOD TO EVALUATE SEISMIC RISK CONSIDERING OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY OF THE WHOLE POTENTIAL EARTHQUAKES

Abstract

In performing seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of structures, failure probabilities of the structures have been usually evaluated from seismic hazard and structural fragility curves. This paper presents a new methodology which can evaluate structural failure probability per year (seismic risk) precisely, by considering occurrence probability of the potential whole earthquakes and by conducting fragility evaluations consistent to the seismic hazard in the procedure. We introduce the physics of the earthquake ground motions, and structural dynamics at the maximum, and discuss a procedure to calculate directly P_f/year for any failure criteria of the considering structure model.