Abstract
This paper proposes an analytical method for the probability mass function of the outage time of the lifeline system due to earthquake. This method which has been constructed based on theorem of total probability can take into consideration the seismic damage correlation depending on a relative distance between facilities. The evaluation case with the probability mass function of the outage time to consider the damage correlation for the highway system is shown as an examination of applicability. The probability distribution shape and characteristic value of the outage time that depends on the damage correlation are studied. Moreover, numerical results by the proposed method are verified by the Monte Carlo simulation.
