Abstract
This study presents a new framework of the probabilistic tsunami hazard evaluation which enables us to use numerical simulation effectively. The basic idea of the framework had been proposed for the reliability analysis of geostructures, and the key issue of the framework is use of the response surface which obtained from the results of numerical simulations. In this study, the response surface of the tsunami height is obtained from the results of the tsunami simulation. In addition, uncertainties related to tsunami simulations are quantified. By using the framework, we can create an environment in which the Monte Carlo Simulation can be performed based on highly-developed numerical simulations. The proposed framework is finally applied to the probabilistic evaluation of the tsunami that was induced by the great east Japan earthquake. The probability density distributions of tsunami height at Sendai, Ishinomaki, and Kamaishi were evaluated with consideration of uncertainties of some fault parameters and a modeling error of the numerical simulation. The obtained results indicate that the framework is effective for the probabilistic tsunami hazard evaluation.
