A METHOD TO CALCULATE EXPECTED FREQUENCY OF RAINFALL-INDUCED SLOPE FAILURE CONSIDERING TRAIN OPERATION CONTROL

Abstract

  Railway operators invest in measures to prevent rainfall-induced slope failure to secure the safety of train operation. It is important to evaluate a slope disaster risk in order to execute the investment in disaster prevention effectively. We developed a method of establishing the distribution of slope failure probability and the distribution of expected rainfall frequency using rainfall indexes adopted for train operation restriction at rainfall. Using these distributions, we also proposed a method of calculating expected frequency of rainfall-induced slope failure and the events assumed at rainfall. In this paper, we describe these methods, and some calculating examples.