Abstract
Fault of lamps in tunnel partially reduces road illuminance. Therefore, it becomes difficult to drive comfortably and safely. Thus, it is important for road administrators to quantitatively estimate fault probability of lamps and its effect. In this paper, the final target is to evaluate the risk of the reduction of road illuminance, caused by fault of lamps. For that reason, the statistical methodology is constructed to analyze the influence and range of road illuminance the lamps have. Concretely, the relation between lamps and road illuminance is formulized as a spatial distribution of illuminance model, which considers spatial interaction, and Bayesian estimation is proposed to estimate the unknown parameter and autocorrelation parameter of a spatial distribution of illuminance model. The paper is concluded by illustrating the application examples of the methodology presented in this paper to the data set in the real field.
