Abstract
It is known that potholes are generated on pavement surfaces when snow thaws or it rains rather than when the weather is fine. If a pothole causes an accident or the like, road management will be deemed to be defective. In this study, the authors propose the rules for intensifying management according to conditions so that the pothole management level is increased according to the weather condition. In detail, the authors express the process of pothole generation, which depends on the rainfall condition, with a Poisson generation model, and the transition mechanism of pothole generation process due to the weather with a Markov switching Poisson process model. The authors also propose a model estimation method using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method considering the latent variable sampling with the multi-move sampler. Lastly, the effectiveness of the proposed rules for intensifying pothole management for expressways is discussed.
