DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTEGRATED TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING MODEL FOR COMPREHENSIVE TRANSPORT STRATEGY

Abstract

  This paper proposes an integrated travel demand forecasting model for a formulation of comprehensive transport strategy and validates its usefulness as a practical tool. In order to overcome and/or modify some drawbacks of Four-Step forecasting model, we develop a semi-dynamic combined network equilibrium model including an activity-travel model that consists of activity choice, destination choice, mode choice and route choice, and also reproduces a trip chain along the time axis by a sequential computation. From the application results of an actual metropolitan area, it was demonstrated that our model is useful from the both of reproducibility and computational efficiency.