Abstract
For impact analyses at national/local scale, spatial downscaling of climate projections is usually a fundamental process, which could be a source of uncertainty as well. In this study, we estimated climate change impacts on beech (Fagus crenata) forests in Japan with considering uncertainties derived from the choice of a regional climate model in addition to uncertainties in emission scenario and climate sensitivity. In order to estimate potential habitat for beech forests under future climate situation, ENVI model (a statistical model to evaluate existence probability of beech forest for each grid cell of 1km x 1km spatial resolution on Japan) was used. While the uncertainty in projected suitable area for beech forest derived from the choice of a regional climate model was smaller than that derived from the choice of a global climate model with different climate sensitivity, difference of projected suitable area for beech forest among the choices of a regional climate model was not negligible at local scale. For a good design of conservation strategies at the spatial scale, it might be better or necessary to consider the uncertainty derived from the choice of a regional climate model as well as the other sources of uncertainty in impact analyses.
