Future Projections of Beach Erosion in Japan using Sea Level Change Data of the MIROC5 model

Abstract

 This study estimates future beach erosion in Japan due to sea level rise using the latest sea level change data of the MIROC5 model for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In the vicinity of Japan, the sea level rise is estimated to be maximum of 0.3 m for RCP8.5, whereas it is estimated to be 0.2 m for the other RCPs. Then, the beach erosion in Japan is estimated to be maximum of 80-180 km² for RCP8.5 and 60-130 km for the other RCPs. The beach erosion will be accelerated in future compared to near future for all RCPs. Uncertainties of the estimation due to input data of beach characteristics are evaluated.