Abstract
Using four scenarios of SRES, Mid and long-term GHG emissions, up to 2050, are estimated for China and India aiming to study scrap availability and its potential on GHG emission reduction. The results of cumurative ratio of scrap supply, taking into account of upper limit of scrap use by end-use category, to apparent consumption were 34-59% for China, 28-41% for India from 2010 to 2050. Two cases of scrap use, a case with using scrap in EAF as much as possible within its use limitation by end-use category and another case with EAF/BOF rate estimated from experiences of other countries were compared. In terms of cumulative CO2 emissions of steel production from 2010 to 2050, CO2 reduction potential will be 9% to 13% in China and 26% to 32% in India. CO2 emissions of 2050 increased from 2.3 to 4.8 times and from 1.7 to 3.8 times for China and India respectively compared to 2010 level.
Given results which suggest limited GHG reduction potentials of scrap use, other measures, especially ones bring better energy efficiency of BOF steel making will be of high importance.
