Abstract
This study focuses on analyzing the feasibility of the global greenhouse gas emissions halving target from 1990 levels by 2050 and socio-economic impacts caused by the mitigation measures quantitatively. A computable general equilibrium model, AIM/CGE[basic] model, linked with a bottom-up module is applied to investigate the impacts in Asian 10 regions (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam). Not only the characteristics and situation of each region but also uncertainty of future development is considered by assuming two contrasting future scenarios for each region.
The results show that it is feasible to achieve the global halving target in 8 regions (all regions except Japan andwith only Korea) with only domestic emissions reduction. For Japan and Korea, international cooperation towards emissions reduction, for example, international emissions trading, is required to achieve their targets. The impacts from countermeasures vary among regions; for some regions such as Japan and Korea, the achievement is challenging while for Philippine, only mitigation actions are required after around 2040. Even under the emissions constraints, GDP increases in all regions; however, emissions reduction brings impacts on economy, and GDP loss is caused especially in regions with high non-energy oriented GHG emissions with maximum 20% GDP loss.
Although the study shows that the target is achievable with only domestic emissions reductions in all regions except Japan and Korea, the aggressive introduction of low carbon technologies is required to achieve the targets, and societies need to overcome such drastic change. In addition, international cooperation toward emissions reduction is necessary especially for countries like Japan and Korea to achieve the global halving target; therefore, development of cooperative framework is urgently requested.
