Abstract
This article quantifies the value of the energy service demand reduction such as transport demand and basic materials production. A global computable general equilibrium model named as AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium) model was used for the analysis associated with multiple future scenarios by 2050. The scenarios with and without energy service demand reduction are compared and the loss of gross domestic production (GDP) caused by climate mitigation is analyzed. There are three major findings. First, 25% energy service demand reduction in transport, building and basic material industry sectors reduces 1.0 of GDP loss (from 4.0 % to 3.0%) in 2050 under the 450ppm CO2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenario. If the stabilization target is softened to 550ppm equivalent, the value of the energy service demand reduction decreases and becomes 0.5% (from 1.2% to 0.7%). Second, the value of the building sector's energy service demand reduction is higher than those of other sectors. This is due to two factors. One is that the emissions of building sectors are higher than other sectors. The other is that household expenditure change can directly influence on GDP.
