Projection of extreme-rainfall-induced landslide in Thailand using three GCMs

Abstract

 The purpose of this study makes a prediction of landslide in Thailand using different resolutions of GCMs and probability model of landslide. These data of spatial resolution are 0.05 degree (latitude /longitude) of grid data. To advance projection of precipitation, we used GCM data which is released by CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) on the internet. We used 3 models (MIROC5, MRI-CGCM3, GFDL-ESM2G) and each model has 5 scenario (hs1, 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5). We set the target period of analysis, which are current climate (1900-2006), near future (2006-2035), mid future (2036-2065), and far future (2066-2095). We obtained landslide probability in whole Thailand per grid, model, scenario, and the target periods.