Abstract
This research proposes downsizing possibility evaluation technique for waterworks pipeline network in population decreasing society. Possible downsizing for pine location and time are extracted for district demands including future uncertainty based on hydraulic supply capacity. Uncertainty of district demands in the future is defined as probabilistic water distribution with standard deviation obtained by time series data of local water demand. Relation of district demands and hydraulic characteristics is modeled by Monte Carlo method and hydraulic network simulation. Probabilistic distribution of flowing quantity and effective hydraulic pressure after downsizing is estimated. Possibility of downsizing is judged on this hydraulic distribution. When the judgment result is shown in map, location and time of possible downsizing in water pipeline system are visually grasped.
