Abstract
To predict transmission pattern of Norovirus gastroenteritis at regional scale, we've constructed an infectious disease transmission model that considers secondary infection in households. In the model, a household-scale submodel that could simulate secondary infection within family members was independently and in parallel applied to all households in the modeled region. The result of simulation showed that the effect of the secondary infection on the spread of the Norovirus gastroenteritis was larger than the primary infection. In particular, households of more than four family members including infant(s) showed ten times higher infectious risk of the secondary infection. Based on comparisons with empirical epidemiological data in the modeled region, our approach demonstrated a high utility ofthe model in estimating the exposure time fromthe primary infection time.
