Abstract
Most of the past studies on the levee destruction are determinism that for the different flood conditions the levee is failure or not failure. However in the real environment, there are a lot of uncertainty factors that would affect the analysis result of the levee stability very seriously. In this study, the authors would consider the variability of soil parameters of levee and propose the new idea for the reliability evaluation of levee during floods by using the probability theory.
In consideration of the different water level conditions, the probability of safety factor of levee can be estimated. When the levee is completely saturated, the safety factor is 80% smaller than 1.2 with considering the uncertainty of the soil parameters in the levee with 7.5 m height. And another water levels, like 7.50 m, 7.25 m and 7.0m is be estimated, here the high water level is 7.0 m assumed.
In conclusions, with considering the variability of the soil parameters, the safety factor of levee is a distribution. Furthermore the driving force and resistance force of levee can be summarized as the reliable design analysis. Finally in this study, the risk of flood (including of levee destruction and overflow) can be evaluated with the change of water level.
