Steel Production Estimation in Japan with Considering Global Market

Abstract

 Steel productions from 2012-2050 in Japan were estimated under various global assumptions based on combination n of scenarios such as goods trade scenarios and process selection scenarios. Process selection scenarios decide volume of steel production by process with considering steel consumption projection, supply-demand balance of steel, and scrap surplus. The range of steel production by process was analyzed.
 Maximum steel production was estimated under the scenario which consumes scrap in domestic steel production at maximum level. In 2035, steel production reaches 149 million ton because of increase in electric furnace steel. It, however, decreases towards 2050 and amounts to 120 million ton. Minimum steel production is under the scenario which assumes technology progress in steel making and supply-demand balance consideration in each region. Steel production decreases from base year and is 44 million ton in 2050.