Abstract
An Event Attribution (EA) technique using a number of ensemble of past climate by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) have been developed to quantify contribution of human-induced global warming on recent extreme events. Due to the limitation of river models implemented in AGCMs, however, an application of EA is limited in climate variables such as surface temperature and precipitation. We therefore conducted a number of ensemble simulation of river discharge using a river and inundation model forced by runoff obtained from EA experiments and applied to the data to analyze 2012 flood event in Amazon. Result indicated that human influence on climate have increased probabilities of the 2012 flood in Amazon to 35-48%. Analysis of climatic features when flood events in Amazon are observed in the EA experiments suggests that anticyclonic curculation are dominant over North Pacific and North Atlantic from October to December, resulting a strong convergence of humidity around the Caribbean Sea and upper Amazonas basin.
