LONG TERM ESTIMATION OF GLOBAL URBANIZATION UNDER SRES AND SSPs SCENARIOS

Abstract

 Urban expansion will have a substantial impact on the environment, including on biodiversity and climate change. In this study, we apply an urban spatial model to estimate the urban expansion in 2100 for approximately 3,600 cities worldwide under the SRES and SSPs scenarios. In particular, we examine the sensitivity of urban expansion to improvements in housing productivity and reductions in the cost of transportation. We find that population growth and economic growth have a substantial impact on urban expansion. Most of our estimations are consistent with the storylines of the scenarios, but those for “sustainable development scenarios” are inconsistent with the storylines. It suggest that more detailed urban policy scenarios are required for quantitative model analysis. In addition, sensitivity analysis shows that improvements in housing productivity would restrain urban expansion, reductions in the cost of transportation would accelerate expansion.