Abstract
An enormous quantity of social capital and buildings has accumulated as stock in the Tokyo metropolitan area, and their inflow and outflow continue. In this study, we developed a time-series flow and stock model for wooden buildings and applied the model to the 180-year period from 1872 through 2050 in Tokyo. We assumed that the survival rate of buildings is determined by both the constructional lifetime, which depends on the period of construction, and external pressures such as disasters and economic changes. The fitting calculation was performed according to statistical data. The results showed that the quantity of wooden buildings would peak in 2033 and the quantity of demolition would peak in 2047. In addition, the results indicated that World War II and the bubble economy in the late 1980s sifted the peak of demolition by approximately 10-12 years, respectively.
