Influence Analysis on Earthquake Damage of Water Distribution Network by Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

 In the Great East Japan Earthquake, it took a long time to recover from water outage because of many water pipes were destroyed. In the Bureau of Waterworks, Tokyo Metropolitan Government, for the purpose of shorten the restoration times from water outage, it has been actively promoting the renewal to the aseismatic pipes. However, it will take enormous cost and time to complete the renewal project. For the effective pipeline renewal plan, that must consider not only the aging of pipes, but also the earthquake damages of pipeline. Damages of pipeline caused by a earthquake is expected to occur at multiple locations at the same time. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the damage point, it is common to capture as a probabilistic phenomenon.
 In this study, focusing on the pipeline damage due to an earthquake. we tried to estimate outage water amount (rate) by using a Monte Carlo simulation analysis. In addition, we examined the effect of reducing the outage water amount due to the introduction of an aseismatic pipeline.