Abstract
The adoption in 2013 of the Minamata Convention on Mercury is expected to result in a decrease in global demand for mercury. Although most mercury in Japan is currently recovered from waste and byproducts and then exported, a future decrease in demand may result in an inevitable surplus in recovered mercury, which would have to be dealt with domestically. To consider future scenarios and capacity for final disposal, it is crucial to understand the future outlook for surplus mercury in Japan. This study, therefore, aims to provide basic information on the potential volume of this surplus.
The study illustrates future global trends for the supply-demand balance of mercury from 2010 to 2050 in Asia, North America, South America, Oceania, European Union, Russia, and Eastern Europe. Consideration is given to the impacts of the Convention, and quantities of surplus mercury in the world and Japan are projected based on three scenarios developed for this study. There is considerable uncertainty about the supply and demand of mercury in China, but the study predicts that a surplus will develop in Japan starting in 2020, when most demand for mercury in products will have been phased out, and the surplus will increase after 2025. The cumulative surplus in 2050 will likely amount to 24,000-25,000 tons worldwide, and 600 to 1,400 tons in Japan. Since the predicted surplus in Japan is likely to appear within just several years, current efforts to establish disposal schemes for mercury should be accelerated. International cooperation is also required in order to cope with the expected global surplus of mercury in an environmentally sound manner, by either long-term storage or final disposal, as technologies to treat mercury are limited to only a few developed countries.
