GLOBAL IMPACT AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF SEA LEVEL RISE BASED ON MULTIPLE CLIMATE MODELS

Abstract

 This paper evaluated the global impats of sea level rise and astronomical high tides using 8 GCM (CMIP5, RCP scenarios) and socioeconomic scenarios (SSP scenarios). As a result, the potential inundated area in 2100 was estimated between 350 thousand km² (NorESM1-M) and 460 thousand km² (MIROC-ESM-CHEM) under RCP8.5. The difference was 29% from the average value. The affected population in 2100 varied from 57 million (NorESM1-M, SSP1) to 117 million (MIROC-ESM-CHEM, SSP3) under RCP 8.5 while it varied from 43 million (IPSL-CM5A-LR, SSP1) to 96 million (MIROC-ESM-CHEM, SSP3) under RCP2.6. The economic damage varied from 164 billion dollars (GFDL-ESM2M, SSP3) to 526 billion dollars (MIROC-ESM-CHEM, SSP1) under RCP8.5 while it varied from 147 billion dollars (NorESM1-M, SSP3) to 452 billion dollars (MIROC-ESM-CHEM, SSP1) under RCP2.6.