DEVELOPMENT OF THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR LONG-TERM ENERGY PLAN CONSIDERING FUTURE UNCERTAINTIES

Abstract

 In recent years, it has become necessary for local governments to establish low-carbon societies through their initiatives. Thus, they have formulated long-term plans for energy systems. However, unexpected future risks cannot be considered in these plans. In this study, we developed a long-term energy planning model using a two-stage stochastic programming method that could be implemented by local governments. This model can estimate an optimal energy supply system while considering future uncertainties; for example, demand and the unit value of CO₂ for power companies.
 When this model was applied to the energy system planning of Toyama Prefecture for the period 2016 to 2050, it indicated a significant increase in hydropower and geothermal power generation, that has abundant presence in Toyama Prefecture, and a reduction in power supplied from the grid. For the final 5-year period (2046 to 2050) of this model, the amount of power supply predicted from grid energy was 45.6 %, geothermal power was 29.5 %, hydraulic power was 14.3 %, and energy from other sources was 10.6 %.