Abstract
Introduction of power system stabilization measures such as demand response (DR) and battery is indispensable under the large-scale deployment of variable renewables. Although a power supply model specialized in the electric power sector is commonly used for power system analysis, with this model alone, it is impossible to estimate the amount of future potential of DR technologies and power demand under low-carbon target. In this research, we combined the information of the technology selection model called AIM/Enduse[Japan], that can consider the entire energy system, with the power supply model, and estimated the introduction amount of the power system stabilization measures under the long-term low carbon scenario. Allowance of annual CO2 emissions from power sector, electricity demand for both DR and non-DR technologies, and generation capacities were adopted from AIM/Enduse [Japan] as input parameters for the power supply model. As a result, introduction of system stabilization measures such as batteries and DR could reduce power generation cost under low carbon scenario by about 1.6 trillion yen, and could increase the capacity factor of gas thermal power plants by 3.5 - 6.1%. In addition, the results showed that it was necessary to introduce battery for short-term fluctuation of the scale exceeding the current amount of pumped-storage power generation in 2040. Moreover, despite the improvement of capacity factor of gas thermal power plants by the combining multiple power system stabilization measures, the capacity factor of thermal power plants would decrease to 25% after 2035 due to the high share of variable renewables. Improvement of DR modeling, consideration of future technology uncertainties and impact on power distribution grids, and iterative calculation between AIM/Enduse[Japan] and the power supply model are future tasks.
