Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change in this century will cause the increase in frequency and intensity of extremely hot day and, as a result, heat stress mortality is also expected to increase. This study analyses the economic damage caused by change in heat stress mortality under climate change considering uncertatinty in future climate and socio-economic change. As a result, the global economic damage caused by heat stress mortality relative to GDP would be limated to below 1% under RCP2.6 emission scenario assuming progress in GHGs mitigation. On the other hand, under RCP8.5 scenario, which is the most warming case, the global economic damage by the end of the century will be above 2% of GDP. While the primary factor of the economic damage increase in the developed regions is the heat stress mortality increase caused by the expected temperature increase, the VSL increase according to the expected economic growth will also contribute to the economic damage increase in the present developing countries.
